Early October is one of my favorite times of the year for two reasons: the rise of fall weather and, more importantly, the return of hockey to the sports landscape. I've already taken an in-depth look at the NHL as a whole (if you missed it, check out my NHL preview here) and wanted to take some time to further break down my team, the Columbus Blue Jackets.After an existance of futility, the Jackets finally got a taste of playoff hockey last season. Sure, they lost four straight games to the Red Wings and only competed in one of them, but reaching the postseason was something this team desperately needed. The fans in Columbus are now excited about hockey again, which hasn't really been the case since the Blue Jackets arrived in 2000.
The thing about success is that it raises expectations. Members of the organization (players, coaches, upper management) and fans alike have been quoted as saying, "Just getting to the playoffs won't be enough anymore." Playing in the NHL's highly-competetive Western Conference, reaching the playoffs is still not a guarantee, so this team can't afford to get ahead of itself. However, I still think that this year's Blue Jackets are improved, will return to the postseason, and will make more than a murmur once they get there.
Let's take a look.
It all starts with Steve Mason. Last year's Calder Trophy winner was the key to Columbus's run to the playoffs, leading the league in shutouts and stealing more than a few games that the team otherwise would have lost. A sophomore slump could be tough to avoid, depending on your definition. It's highly unlikely that Mason will be able to match his numbers from his rookie season (10 shutouts, 2.29 GAA, .916 save percentage) because he's not going to be the hot shot goalie taking the league by storm. Teams have now seen him for a season, they know what he does well and have seen ways to score on him, part of a reason why Detroit scored 18 goals in its four playoff wins over Columbus. That being said, I don't see Mason as one-year wonder. He clearly has top-level talent and the potential to be one of the NHL's top-five goalies for years to come. One luxury Mason and the Jackets will have this season is a competent backup. The other major factor that led to Mason's difficult playoff debut was his intense workload. He had to play in practically every game just to get his team into the playoffs...the guy was playing with mono for crying out loud. This season, though, that won't be necessary. Outside of Rick Nash's contract extension, the signing of backup goalie Mathieu Garon was the biggest move of the offseason made by GM Scott Howson. Garon brings NHL experience and success (including a Stanley Cup ring) to the team and is someone Ken Hitchcock won't have to fear playing when Mason needs a break.
Defensively the Blue Jackets are solid, but not spectacular. Jan Hejda and Mike Commodore are a strong top pair to match-up against opposing first lines. I still don't think Commodore is worth the money he's making, but he's a good shutdown defender with a Stanley Cup ring, a good guy to have on this team. Hejda doesn't get very much publicity but is incredibly valuable to the Jackets: his plus-43 rating over the past two seasons speaks for itself. Fedor Tyutin proved to be a great pickup last season, leading the team's defensemen in scoring (9-25-34) and playing well in his own zone. We can't say the same for Christian Backman, but he's no longer with the team (couldn't go through this preview without mentioning that, high-five for him being gone). Rostislav Klesla, the Jackets' first ever draft pick, only played in 34 games due to injury but has developed into a strong two-way defender and was one of the team's best players in the playoffs. Kris Russell is still pretty green but showed flashes last season of the start-the-rush player Columbus hopes he will become. Russell's biggest issue is his confidence, which he tends to lose after making a mistake (a short memory can be a wonderful thing for a young defenseman). Marc Methot probably won't ever be a top-four defenseman, but he showed at times that he can perform at the NHL level. The Blue Jackets picked up a seventh D-man earlier this week, acquiring 23-year-old Anton Stralman from Calgary. He's entering his third NHL season and will be a rare right-handed shot on the Blue Jackets' blue line. While Stralman probably won't play in the team's first couple games, but they picked him up for a reason: to improve the NHL's worst powerplay. He will likely only see time on the team's third defensive pairing, but he should be in the lineup quite a bit once he gets acclimated to his new team.
For the first time in their history, the Blue Jackets have the potential to score quite a few goals. Rick Nash is turning into one of the NHL's top wingers and set a club record for points last year (40-39-79). His numbers could climb quite a bit higher this season by, potentially, playing with a playmaking center for an entire season. Derick Brassard played with Nash on the top line to start last season and led all rookies in scoring (10-15-25) until suffering a season-ending injury after 31 games. Nash still managed his best season yet playing with Kristian Huselius (who will return to the top line) and Manny Malhotra, who is a good checking line center but not a scorer. Columbus also has a potentially dangerous second scoring line as well. Center Antoine Vermette came to Columbus at the trade deadline and is a great two-way forward and faceoff man. He'll be joined by Jakub Voracek, who quietly had a very strong rookie season, and rookie Nikita Filatov. Filatov could be the X-factor for this team. Last year he was named hockey's top prospect by The Hockey News and scored four goals in his eight-game NHL debut. He has good speed and a great set of hands, but can get caught trying to do too much by himself, something a lot of young forwards have to fix when they enter the league. I like that he's getting a chance to start the season in the team's top-six, but if he struggles or isn't playing "Hitchcock hockey," the head coach won't be afraid to take him down a few pegs for a few games. This shouldn't be a problem; after hearing Filatov talk a few times you can tell he's definitely not the second coming of Nikolai Zherdev, but he's still a rookie and has a lot to learn about playing in the NHL. With Malhotra and Michael Peca gone, Howson's move to sign Sammy Pahlsson this summer was perfect. Pahlsson is one of the best penalty-killing forwards in the NHL and the perfect third-lind center for a Hitchcock team. Don't be surprised if his line gets in on the scoring a little bit: Jason Chimera can't really handle the puck, but he's incredibly fast and R.J. Umberger set a career-high with 26 goals last season. The forwards are rounded-out by Andrew Murray, who won the fourth-line center job out of training camp, Raffi Torres, Jared Boll, Derek Dorsett and Michael Blunden. Most of them won't see much else this season, barring injury problems, but Torres would probably be the one to move if things aren't clicking on the top-two lines. Fredrik Modin is starting the season in injured reserve, so it will be interesting to see what happens to the lineup when he returns.
After examining this team and seeing what its players and coaches have to say, I have two concerns: its powerplay and its youth. The Blue Jackets statistically had the worst powerplay in the NHL last season (12.7%) but you didn't need that number to know how bad they were with the man advantage. It seemed like half of the time the Jackets couldn't even gain possession of the puck in the offensive zone. When they did, they didn't get a whole lot accomplished. Powerplays usually consisted of all five players standing still, passing the puck around, rarely getting a shot to the net. It's very easy for penalty killers to deal with a team that doesn't move...the idea is to tire them out by making them chase you around, then exploit their fatigue. Columbus has to improve its powerplay to make it back to the playoffs and, in theory, it should be much better. Stralman's presence on the point will help, as will a healthy Brassard. Filatov's skill will be a welcome addition too, as long as he doesn't try to do too much by himself. Russell is still adjusting to the NHL game, but he seems to be getting more comfortable manning the point on the powerplay. Add-in Nash, Huselius, Vermette, Voracek and even Umberger, and the Columbus powerplay should drastically improve...it'd be kind of hard not to after last year.
Youth can be a great thing in sports. I mean, we're in the middle of what's been dubbed hockey's "youth movement," so clearly there are some perks to being young and talented. Look at what Johnathan Toews and Patrick Kane have done in Chicago, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in Pittsburgh, Alexander Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom in Washington. All young, all leading Stanley Cup-contending teams. The NHL game is a lot faster and more talent-driven than ever, becoming more of a young-man's game every year, and the Jackets have a deep crop of talented youngsters. Young players have that jump in their stride some players have lost and are usually eager to prove themselves in the best league in the world. That being said, you can't take over the NHL overnight. After the Blue Jackets' final preseason game, Hitchcock said that an observer could have watched the game and known that Columbus has a lot of talent on its team. He also said that his team didn't really accomplish anything the entire game. Hitchcock took over the Blue Jackets in 2006 and pretty much had to use the Norman Dale coaching method from Hoosiers ("I'm gonna break them down, then I'm gonna build them back up"). The Blue Jackets are finally playing tough, gritty Hitchcock hockey. Now that they have more talent than ever before, they can't forget what made them a contender. Nash bought into Hitchcock's system, and he and the team are better for it. Columbus needs the rest of its young players to do the same. The stuff that worked in juniors won't in the NHL: constantly carrying the puck into the zone, dangling around defenders, coasting to get back on defense. Not only will it not work, but Hitchcock won't stand for it. It's not that he doesn't want his players to use their offensive skills, he's just as excited about his team's talent as anyone is, but he also knows what it takes to win in the NHL (just ask his 500+ wins). He's not afraid to bench players for getting cute with the puck or being lazy defensively.
Now, I'm not saying this team's youth is a concern because I think its players are immature prima-donnas. In fact, Hitchcock has even addressed this issue and says he isn't worried about his team's maturity level. Still, you can't be so naive as to not expect some growing pains. Do I think this is the best Blue Jackets team to date? Yes. But me or anyone else thinking that means nothing, they still have to get it done on the ice. All-in-all, I think this team will go as far as its young players take it.
Here's hoping that's back to the playoffs.
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